Let's be Realistic

[T van R]

Hello every body I didn't make this article for advising you.
I just sum up some reasons to explain why Ferrari has LOTS OF A LOT OF WORK to do for 2012 car.

Comparing top three teams according to two simple facts.

1:Pirelli Tires heating/Degradation problem

Red Bull had no problem from the beginning of 2011 season because they had a japanese tire engineer from the first moment.

Mclaren had tires degradation problem in the begining of 2011 season, but after about 4 or 5 Grand Prix they solved it. Medias in 2011/Aug/15 announced that Hiroshi Imai, the former F1 supplier Bridgestone's chief engineer is working with them.

Ferrari was excellent in tires degradation aspect, but they have tire heating problem. As you know from 2012/Jan/11,former Bridgestone technical director Hirohide Hamashima is working with them.

So understanding pirelli tires is one of the major problems that Ferrari has focused during the designing of F2012 while Red Bull & Mclaren have solved it in last season.

2:Evolution or Revolution

Red Bull:Red Bull's 2012 car is an evolution of RB7 & RB7 was an evolution of RB6. So They make their competitive car even more competitive every new season.

Mclaren: Mclaren 2011 car was a unique example of developed cars during the 2011 season that we saw they had the ability to compete with Red Bull during the season & at the end Mclaren was a bit quicker than Red Bull. So they keep on developing their 2011 car for 2012 season.

Ferrari: Because Ferrari's last cars in 2010 & 2011 were conservative in designing & there was no room for improvment, as they announced the F2012 is a departure of their last seasons designs & in simple word they began F2012 designing from zero. Designing a car from zero along new philosophy & innovative way needs Huge amount of time that shifted Ferrari's attention to begin F2012 designing sooner instead of developing & updating 2011 car.

As you know revolution needs time & hard work and some times the results are not the favorite one.

Ferrari had 8 months with some unsolved problem & innovative ways (Like front suspension that take a long time to make it work) to design 2012 car while Red Bull & Mclaren had enough time to innovation & designing the 2012 car.

But the point is as Mclaren change the situation in 2011 season brilliantly, I think Ferrari can do exactly the same in 2012 season. But Because of limited time for testing, gathering data & ... it is not possible to tell exactly, so this competitiveness could be from the first 2012 Grand Prix or from third Grand Prix.

Two request:

First request: Please don't worry about tests lap times, or why Ferrari drivers didn't speak to medias.These things are not important in my opinion.

Second Request: The big guns always pretend they are weak in tests. Mclaren seems to be strong but Red Bull is the team to defeat. Some people think introducing upgrades in last two days of tests shows that Red Bull is in deep problem. I don't think so. They are ahead of everybody, they just need some more gap to win championship easily. Please don't be naive. Red Bull is a great team. To be honest Red Bull is a monster & that is our obligation to defeat them.

Thank you for reading

Any comment?

[impactX]

I think the status quo remains, with RB being on top, Mclaren being second and SF being third; but the gap should be closer than last year.

[Raz]

I think the status quo remains, with RB being on top, Mclaren being second and SF being third; but the gap should be closer than last year.

I think SF should be looking over their shoulder a bit..

[Rob]

I think SF should be looking over their shoulder a bit..

back at RBR and rest of the grid

[Suzie]

I think SF should be looking over their shoulder a bit..

At Nico?

[Raz]

At Nico?

Well Pat Fry, just categorically ruled out Podiums for the time being, and fact is the Mercs have been very solid and bloody fast in the long runs. Should be quite a battle
http://abulafiaf1.files.wordpress.co...on-figures.png

[Axelsson]

I think SF should be looking over their shoulder a bit..

Jepp. Mercedes, Force India and Lotus is there very close.

[Ste]

Well Pat Fry, just categorically ruled out Podiums for the time being, and fact is the Mercs have been very solid and bloody fast in the long runs. Should be quite a battle
http://abulafiaf1.files.wordpress.co...on-figures.png

You've no idea on fuel levels etc. the Mercedes cars are having massive issue with tyre degradation so I think it's a bit silly to suggest they've been 'bloody fast' based on a few times in testing.

Ferrari aren't in as bad shape as is being made out by the press. Pat Fry even said he's a pessimist and track side observers have said how the F2012 has improved massively and now looks pretty good. Peter Windsor still has Alonso down for the title.

Schumacher has said Mercedes won't be fighting for wins, or the championship. So has Brawn. So if your times are 'bloody fast' then other teams must be insanely off the scale.

[Raz]

You've no idea on fuel levels etc. the Mercedes cars are having massive issue with tyre degradation so I think it's a bit silly to suggest they've been 'bloody fast' based on a few times in testing.

Ferrari aren't in as bad shape as is being made out by the press. Pat Fry even said he's a pessimist and track side observers have said how the F2012 has improved massively and now looks pretty good. Peter Windsor still has Alonso down for the title.

Schumacher has said Mercedes won't be fighting for wins, or the championship. So has Brawn. So if your times are 'bloody fast' then other teams must be insanely off the scale.

Shoot first then ask questions eh? hehe
anyways, Brawn went on to elaborate about the Tyre Deg issue.. and I quote from Autosport..

Mercedes has appeared to suffer a greater tyre performance drop-off over a stint, particularly on softs, than rivals, but Brawn played this problem down.

"I think the difficulty is that we are in relatively cool conditions in Barcelona trying to work out what the degradation is going to be with different tracks and different ambients and different duty cycles, so it is a little bit difficult to predict," he said.

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/97839

and known Brawn he's more than likely had the cars tanked up, also if we further analyse Nico's Fast stint from yesterday, he's 1:22.9 was set at the BEGINNING of a stint.
rosbergs-fast-stint-03-03.png

Might I also add that 20kg of fuel is worth around 8/10ths

[Greig]

At Nico?

[Alonsomaniac]

We have not lost anything until they cross the finishline in front of us.
I refuse to be pessimistic even before the season has started

[Raz]

We have not lost anything until they cross the finishline in front of us.
I refuse to be pessimistic even before the season has started

well for all we know, it could be a wet race at Melbourne, and ANYTHING can happen in those scenarios!

[Ste]

Shoot first then ask questions eh? hehe
anyways, Brawn went on to elaborate about the Tyre Deg issue.. and I quote from Autosport..

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/97839

and known Brawn he's more than likely had the cars tanked up, also if we further analyse Nico's Fast stint from yesterday, he's 1:22.9 was set at the BEGINNING of a stint.
rosbergs-fast-stint-03-03.png

Might I also add that 20kg of fuel is worth around 8/10ths

Yes, conditions are the same for everyone, so if Mercedes degrade tyres quicker than another team, then that means they're harder on the tyres.

Knowing Brawn? I wasn't aware Brawn was known for running the cars 'tanked up' during testing.

I seem to remember Brawn GP destroying everyone in their first Barcelona test in 2009, so they clearly weren't. Pretty sure Mercedes weren't 'tanked up' in 2010 or 2011 either, what would be the point in sandbagging a team that was 4th quickest?

If you think Mercedes are 8 tents quicker than they're showing in testing then you're in for an enormous shock by the time we get to Melbourne!

[Raz]

Yes, conditions are the same for everyone, so if Mercedes degrade tyres quicker than another team, then that means they're harder on the tyres.

Knowing Brawn? I wasn't aware Brawn was known for running the cars 'tanked up' during testing.

I seem to remember Brawn GP destroying everyone in their first Barcelona test in 2009, so they clearly weren't. Pretty sure Mercedes weren't 'tanked up' in 2010 or 2011 either, what would be the point in sandbagging a team that was 4th quickest?

If you think Mercedes are 8 tents quicker than they're showing in testing then you're in for an enormous shock by the time we get to Melbourne!

Look, I don't know if you ready the Q&A with Norbert, yesterday on AUTOSPORT-LIVE where he was asked a very specific question... regarding Hot/low-fuel laps.. and quite simply he answered, they're not going to do any low fuel runs during testing, and that the real pace will be revealed in Melbourne, hence the cars ARE "TANKED UP" to a certain degree.

p.s stop taking this personally.. enjoy it, after all, it's nice to have some competition..

[Greig]

Knowing Brawn? I wasn't aware Brawn was known for running the cars 'tanked up' during testing.

I seem to remember Brawn GP destroying everyone in their first Barcelona test in 2009, so they clearly weren't.

Erm they destroyed every one in Australia too, but anyway Merc will suck and MS will be beat by Nico, nothing much changes

[Suzie]

Glad someone got it

[Alessandra]

Since my knowledeg of F1 car design, engineering etc etc is zilch I can't express any thoughts on it.

So, the thing that really concerns me are the extraordinary messages coming from the team itself. I've never heard both drivers of a team being pulled from interviews before. Who's being protected here and from what? What info could they have given away that hasn't been voiced a few hours later by Pat Fry.

He hasn't minced his words today and his comments are deeply depressing - for the team, for its fans and supporters. What on earth is going on here?

[Tifosi]

If it's a choice between taking a punt on whether Pat Fry is wrong to be outwardly pessimistic or Raz the Schudas is right to be outwardly optimistic - I know which i'll go for.....











(sorry Raz)

[T van R]

Please consider that Ferrari had to take this step. Ferrari has to take some risks to open the windows of improving. This step is crucial because Ferrari needs to be competitive, so it is better to make expectations lower at this stage of season & give them a chance with this new step & new philosophy of designing. I have faith in F2012 project.
I myself love the way of Pat Fry talks. He knows making an empty hopes will do nothing. Medias wanted to know his opinion & he said it

[Greig]

From the way I read it, we took risks, we could not understand it or get it to work so have gone back to something we know which is probably not as good, how can Sauber for instance get it working yet Ferrari can't?

[T van R]

From the way I read it, we took risks, we could not understand it or get it to work so have gone back to something we know which is probably not as good, how can Sauber for instance get it working yet Ferrari can't?

We really don't know how competitive Sauber is. Sauber looks competitive in tests, but is it enough?

I know what you mean Greig. Sometimes results are not the favorite one, But Ferrari has chosen a new direction. This new direction is not the random one. For sure Ferrari has a lot of speculations about it's new direction.

Even if Ferrari was conservative, again there wasn't any chance to fighting for podium, because there wasn't enough room for improvement in Ferrari's last year car. so they need the departure to a new concept & philosophy of designing.

In 2011 season in first three Grand Prix Ferrari couldn't fight for podium. These were the results of conservative designing. Now what is the problem if Ferrari wasn't podium finisher in first two or three Grand Prix with new philosophy?

I don't know why everybody is in panic after Pat Fry's last interview. We had two weeks ahead of us with plenty of time. Lets wait & see. Even if Ferrari couldn't manage a podium in first two or three Grand Prix, i won't throw anything away

[Jose-Lorca Fan]

I think Ferrari will surprise us come Melbourne, not saying we'll win but i think we'll perform to a very good level and everyone will calm down. It's going to be a long season and Ferrari have history developing bad cars into good cars. Let's hope the car will be up and running for wins not before too long.
To put Pat Fry's comments into context, it's important to understand that Ferrari wanted to be ahead of Red Bull at Melbourne, so of course Ferrari aren't happy with their current position. I reckon by the time the 4th race comes round the block we'll have a better understanding of where each team is in the pecking order. Ferrari have a year to develop this car, keep the faith because until Ferrari doesn't give up we shouldn't either.
I'll still enjoy watching Ferrari racing in F1 no matter where they are on the grid, i enjoyed last year, the year before that and also 2009, yes winning is everything, but for me, as a fan, just watching Ferrari compete on the best racing platform in the world is better.

Looking forward to Melbourne!

PS: Can the mods edit the title, there's a typo, looks messy

[T van R]

PS: Can the mods edit the title, there's a typo, looks messy

I saw the mistake after posting thread and there was no way to edit it by myself
I would appreciate if one of the moderators change the title to Let's Be Realistic

[Agron]

Indeed this year doesn't look good, I'm beginning to fear we won't win every race by more than half a lap at most

[NJB13]

Wish I didn't have all the Merc PR to sift through.

The question about how Sauber have got things working and we haven't is a good one and I'd like to hear an answer to that. Could it be that they had a stable baseline (last years car which isn't that different to this years car - guessing there) but we don't have that baseline because of pull-rod all round, changed driver position etc.??

[Hornet]

I think its still a hit or miss with new ideas. Something may look good in the simulator and on paper, but we never really know until we actually implement them in a real situation that we know if it really works as we thought it would be.

Maybe Sauber got lucky that their idea worked out the way the expected, while Ferrari found that their exhaust idea was not working the way they thought it would.

Maybe RB exhaust might suffer the same fate as Ferrari's too. They only had less than 2 days of testing

[impactX]

It could also be that Fry was sent by Mclaren to troll us.

Time will tell whether we will perform.

[T van R]

It could also be that Fry was sent by Mclaren to troll us.

Time will tell whether we will perform.

Please don't say that. Pat Fry is from Benetton F1 team along with Ross Brawn, Nicholas Tombazis & Rory Byrne. He is the man who has brought Rory Byrne to F2012 project efficiently (More than a consultant role for Rory Byrne).

I rate Pat Fry as high as Ross Brawn.

[Stormsearcher]

Err... we ended testing in second position just 0.2 off Kimis first. Why the panic buttons?? Or have i missed something?

Yeah i know pat fry went public saying we wont be gracing the podium in Melbourne, but it could just be the team selling dummies right?

[NJB13]

Err... we ended testing in second position just 0.2 off Kimis first. Why the panic buttons?? Or have i missed something?

Yeah i know pat fry went public saying we wont be gracing the podium in Melbourne, but it could just be the team selling dummies right?

It's amazing how much we read into Pat saying "at the moment" I don't know enough to say we'll be fighting for podiums.

Anyway, here's a stat I liked that might bring some smiles to our collective faces. It comes from this Andrew Benson article on the BBC. It compares the average lap times of all the laps completed by the drivers over the whole of the winter testing. Fernando was fastest a small thing I know, but, at least something positive, here's the list from the article:-

Fernando 1:25.040 (article actually doesn't give Nando's time, just says he was fastest by .3 seconds)
Vettel 1:25.340
Button 1:25.664
Hamilton 1:25.937
Webber 1:25.951

As the smart people know, you don't read things into lap times, but, for those looking for something to smile about - there you go