Japanese Grand Prix 2019

[Rob]

[Greig]

Re-read my post again because you clearly are not getting the message and what I'm trying to say (maybe you do it deliberately?). A pitstop takes around the time that I wrote (23-24 seconds). In any given stage of the race there is not a spot where a harder tyre loses 1 second a lap to a softer one (not on this circuit because it's a flowing one), on any given fuel load. So that's at least 25 laps in hand if Ferrari would have been on hards at a given time and Merc on softs/medium at the same moment. And again, Pirelli brought a harder range of compounds this year than last year. So bolting on softs at the end would also have worked, even if they would be a tad more worn than Mercs softs/mediums. Why? Because again, the softs were harder this year.

Again, mediums (stretched out)-softs, mediums (mid race)-hards or hards-softs would be a quicker race time than softs-mediums-softs or softs-softs-mediums. If the pitwall make these calculations they will see that I'm right. This is no magic. The problem, again, is that pitwalls never explore these options. I don't believe they are stupid. I believe they are told by the FiA and Liberty what to do pree qualifying for the spectacle so to speak.

Bottas was 3 seconds quicker than Lewis when he went to the mediums, yet you think we could match that on hard tyres, and you are being serious about it? Pitwalls don't look at these options as they are slower that's why maybe you will understand that soon enough As for the final comment well I guess we can end all discussions now if that's what you believe.

[512 TR]

Bottas was 3 seconds quicker than Lewis when he went to the mediums, yet you think we could match that on hard tyres, and you are being serious about it? Pitwalls don't look at these options as they are slower that's why maybe you will understand that soon enough As for the final comment well I guess we can end all discussions now if that's what you believe.

Again, in my scenario it would have been a different pitstop sequence running a pre-planned one-stopper. So why are you hell bent on comparing pace on the same compound? It's totally irrelevant (as it was for Merc is Sochi). Why do you think they showed a graphic prior to the start where Pirelli expected teams starting on softs to either go for the hards (with a shorter 1st stint) or for the mediums (with a longer 1st stint)? It was shown just prior to the start. Alfa also started both drivers on the mediums, our "B-team". Probably for evaluation. So they have the data. Just calculate it. It will be VERY important for next year.

Again, Ferrari, in a normal race (like Seb's) would be stopping around lap 28 had he started on mediums (give or take 5 laps depending on going for the hards or softs). Or maybe around lap 35 (starting on hards) and bolting on softs for the end. Merc would stop twice way earlier and way later than our strategy. They would never be close on track...until the end.

So, somewhat more worn tyres in the end but 23-24 seconds in the bag in the race. You do the math regarding this flowing circuit where you spend 67% of the time on full throttle, even through many corners because the gearing in previous corners dictate that. Only Spa and Monza is more extreme with around 70%.

You just don't want to understand.

[Greig]

Again, in my scenario it would have been a different pitstop sequence running a pre-planned one-stopper. So why are you hell bent on comparing pace on the same compound? It's totally irrelevant (as it was for Merc is Sochi). Why do you think they showed a graphic prior to the start where Pirelli expected teams starting on softs to either go for the hards (with a shorter 1st stint) or for the mediums (with a longer 1st stint)? It was shown just prior to the start. Alfa also started both drivers on the mediums, our "B-team". Probably for evaluation. So they have the data. Just calculate it. It will be VERY important for next year.

Again, Ferrari, in a normal race (like Seb's) would be stopping around lap 28 had he started on mediums (give or take 5 laps depending on going for the hards or softs). Or maybe around lap 35 (starting on hards) and bolting on softs for the end. Merc would stop twice way earlier and way later than our strategy. They would never be close on track...until the end.

So, somewhat more worn tyres in the end but 23-24 seconds in the bag in the race. You do the math regarding this flowing circuit where you spend 67% of the time on full throttle, even through many corners because the gearing in previous corners dictate that. Only Spa and Monza is more extreme with around 70%.

You just don't want to understand.

What teams ran your strategy Haas and how did that work out for them? But you said FIA decide strategy anyway so why are you even trying to justify your wrong strategy? The graphic at the start? you mean Pirelli's prediction on when the tyres will start to degrade to a point you lose time, that some teams get more or less laps from before they see the drop? Both Alfa's started outside the top 10 so off course it makes more sense to run a longer opening stint when you are down in the midfield as most others do nothing to do with data for Ferrari lol

So to sum up you think if we started on Mediums we would have kept up with the Mercs in the 1st stint, then take hards to the end and also keep up with the Mercs...that's what you are trying to say right? Please tell me you really dont think we have the pace to stay with the Mercs with one step harder tyres as there has never been anything to suggest that is possible.

You also suggested we should start on mediums in case we mess up at the start, should that be at every race from now on? And will the FIA Liberty allow us to do that since they decide strategy?

[nani_s23]

After summer break 5th straight pole ...!! Very excited with current form of Ferrari. We can expect further more in the remaining races. Now we have strong one-lap car.
We’ve kept an end to Ham’s pole position dominance. With this form if we keep end to dominance of their WCC & WDC next season it will be even more wonderful.

[512 TR]

What teams ran your strategy Haas and how did that work out for them? But you said FIA decide strategy anyway so why are you even trying to justify your wrong strategy? The graphic at the start? you mean Pirelli's prediction on when the tyres will start to degrade to a point you lose time, that some teams get more or less laps from before they see the drop? Both Alfa's started outside the top 10 so off course it makes more sense to run a longer opening stint when you are down in the midfield as most others do nothing to do with data for Ferrari lol

So to sum up you think if we started on Mediums we would have kept up with the Mercs in the 1st stint, then take hards to the end and also keep up with the Mercs...that's what you are trying to say right? Please tell me you really dont think we have the pace to stay with the Mercs with one step harder tyres as there has never been anything to suggest that is possible.

You also suggested we should start on mediums in case we mess up at the start, should that be at every race from now on? And will the FIA Liberty allow us to do that since they decide strategy?

Yes, and yes again to the two first parts of your post. Because of the 23-24 seconds in hand which would be at least 25 laps of the 53 raced. Not yes at all costs to the last one. The last one depends on a few key factors like if Pirelli brought at too soft or a too hard compound range for a race weekend. They have done both in recent years. This year they have gone too hard in most races in my opinion. For helping Merc of course. In Suzuka it was possible to run a one-stopper with the right set-up. Because of the Ferrari aero upgrades since Singapore they could have done it and it would have worked. We just have to agree to disagree on this one. I know I'm right and that's enough for me. But I also, for next year, want the pitwall to be aware of all the options. I know these classic circuits like the inside of my pockets. I know where the tyre wear occurs and in the 2nd part of a season you know what the manufacturer has done to the compounds and then it's easy to draw the conclusion.

To answer your question to the point (the last part of your post). For next year, if the package is superior to Merc and RBR, there will be a couple of circuits where going for the middle compound in Q2 will be an insurance for the risk of VSCs/SCs and the nature of the circuits (flowing vs. stop-and-go), like full throttle time. Without breaking and acceleration the compounds have been pretty steady in performance. So when you are on 67-70% full throttle you lose less time on harder compounds, especially at the start on a higher fuel load. Because of that you're then given the chance to go softer at the end on light fuel. That's a fact. But the show is clearly more important...

Edit: also please remind everyone why Spa and Monza was a one-stopper for the winner. Did the winner deliberately pick a slower strategy? Maybe the "show" factor wasn't in place there. But maybe it was a one-stopper because of the nature of the circuit and harder tyres picked for this year. The difference in full throttle at Spa and Monza compared to Suzuka is approx. 3%.

[Stormsearcher]

Was a decent race, as races go. Nothing thrilling. But not a snooze fest like monaco.
I feel we could have won this, had either Seb or Lec had a good start and led at the end of lap 1. But its good to see the car is performing on every track now. Plus our straight line speed is unmatched.
Things are looking good for 2020.

[wappad]

After summer break 5th straight pole ...!! Very excited with current form of Ferrari. We can expect further more in the remaining races. Now we have strong one-lap car.
We’ve kept an end to Ham’s pole position dominance. With this form if we keep end to dominance of their WCC & WDC next season it will be even more wonderful.

And with Seb on the podium this morning, the Scuderia scored consecutive podiums during the last 12 races .

3rd. best achievement since the start of F1 in 1950. Only outscored by 2 extreme series during the Schumi years

Well done Scuderia

[nani_s23]

And with Seb on the podium this morning, the Scuderia scored consecutive podiums during the last 12 races .

3rd. best achievement since the start of F1 in 1950. Only outscored by 2 extreme series during the Schumi years

Well done Scuderia

Yeah next season, if we can fix our race pace/ reliability. Obviously Lec/vettel will bring us WCC for sure.
Waiting for next 4 races to finish ASAP & next season start.
Also if Lec can get couple of wins this season & finish 2nd in WDC it will be another big achievement for Ferrari.

[Greig]

Yes, and yes again to the two first parts of your post. Because of the 23-24 seconds in hand which would be at least 25 laps of the 53 raced.

Edit: also please remind everyone why Spa and Monza was a one-stopper for the winner. Did the winner deliberately pick a slower strategy? Maybe the "show" factor wasn't in place there. But maybe it was a one-stopper because of the nature of the circuit and harder tyres picked for this year. The difference in full throttle at Spa and Monza compared to Suzuka is approx. 3%.

Wow so you think we would not lose more than 1 second a lap with us on hards and Merc on mediums, are you actually being serious? Bottas was 3 seconds faster than Lewis when he went on new mediums compare to used softs, now imagine us already being slower on the harder tyres and your idea of strategy is simply ridiculous.

Monza and Spa did not have the tyre deg that was happening at Suzuka which is why 1 stop worked and was the fastest strategy, you think the teams just pick a random number of stops to do? (oh wait no you think FIA do that lol) No they have all the data for tyres and can see the drop off and how many stops will be the quickest way to the flag, off course you can't account for driver errors and getting stuck behind another car then you might need to think about an alternative strategy.

Again how did the strategy for Haas go today?

[brava]

It looks good for Ferrari, did not expect this level of competitiveness going into summer break.

As for Suzuka race, it was down to drivers mistake, no more no less.

[paolo lalli]

Quietly mercedes are concerned they will take the prize as they deserve but deep down Mr wolf knows that there is work to be done.Our mistakes no matter how small from pit wall strategies to driver errors and communications have cost us many opportunities.our car has come to life at the back end of the season this has also impacted.The platform is laid for a promising new season.

[512 TR]

Wow so you think we would not lose more than 1 second a lap with us on hards and Merc on mediums, are you actually being serious? Bottas was 3 seconds faster than Lewis when he went on new mediums compare to used softs, now imagine us already being slower on the harder tyres and your idea of strategy is simply ridiculous.

I've made my point in my previous posts. One more time will not change your opinion so why bother? But please explain to other readers why Seb was faster than Lewis but slower than Bottas, since they all were on similar strategies. So what would have happened in my scenario?

Monza and Spa did not have the tyre deg that was happening at Suzuka which is why 1 stop worked and was the fastest strategy, you think the teams just pick a random number of stops to do? (oh wait no you think FIA do that lol) No they have all the data for tyres and can see the drop off and how many stops will be the quickest way to the flag, off course you can't account for driver errors and getting stuck behind another car then you might need to think about an alternative strategy.

There was no extreme tyre degradation at Suzuka this year. Teams were told to run two-stoppers for the show as the worry was that the race might be boring otherwise. It was boring anyway so they were right (for the show) with that in mind as it kept viewers glued until the 2nd stops were done. Again, with the right set-up in qualifying going for mediums (or even hards) in Q2 and then pitting around lap 28 would be enough to keep the softs alive for 25 laps on a lighter fuel load with a 23-24 seconds delta cushion. The real cushion, as Mercs would emerge from their seconds stops would, on track, probably have been around 13-16 seconds. Then both packages on the same compound with Merc some 10-12 laps younger would not claw back those 13-16 seconds and being able to pass. Pass where? Did Lewis pass Seb? He was close, but no dice!

Again how did the strategy for Haas go today?

Haas is rubbish this year. You can't use them as an evidence. At least I used Alfa who are our B-team. That's not right either as the gap is enormous to the SF90. So my wrong but you're even more wrong.

[Greig]

I've made my point in my previous posts. One more time will not change your opinion so why bother? But please explain to other readers why Seb was faster than Lewis but slower than Bottas, since they all were on similar strategies. So what would have happened in my scenario?



There was no extreme tyre degradation at Suzuka this year. Teams were told to run two-stoppers for the show as the worry was that the race might be boring otherwise. It was boring anyway so they were right (for the show) with that in mind as it kept viewers glued until the 2nd stops were done. Again, with the right set-up in qualifying going for mediums (or even hards) in Q2 and then pitting around lap 28 would be enough to keep the softs alive for 25 laps on a lighter fuel load with a 23-24 seconds delta cushion. The real cushion, as Mercs would emerge from their seconds stops would, on track, probably have been around 13-16 seconds. Then both packages on the same compound with Merc some 10-12 laps younger would not claw back those 13-16 seconds and being able to pass. Pass where? Did Lewis pass Seb? He was close, but no dice!



Haas is rubbish this year. You can't use them as an evidence. At least I used Alfa who are our B-team. That's not right either as the gap is enormous to the SF90. So my wrong but you're even more wrong.

Well you are wrong very wrong and your strategy would have just given Merc a 1-2 but we can leave it there as you are clearly not thinking.

[IulianFerrari]

Our pace is encouraging, especially in qualy. Hamilton has done a smart season and has it in the bag this year. Hope we keep improving a become the team to beat next year.

[Giallo 550]

The only way Ferrari's start would have been more painful was if the team and/or drivers were actually in contention for a championship. The pace of the car is encouraging and a stark contrast to earlier in the season, so there's that, and at least Vettel beat Hamilton.

[doublesixes]

Another 1-2 slips through our fingers due to rookie, dumb mistakes. Our drivers are not performing on par with MB's which work as a team in remarkable ways. If one adds the, so far, flawless performance of their cars, it's easy to see that their 6th consecutive championships could easily turn into 7, 8 or more. Ferrari has a decent car but sloppiness with both our drivers and technical direction will guarantee that we could potentially bear a big L (for losers) in our foreheads for the foreseeable future. Heads-up, Scuderia!

[nani_s23]

It looks good for Ferrari, did not expect this level of competitiveness going into summer break.

As for Suzuka race, it was down to drivers mistake, no more no less.

100%...!!

[RicRac]

Im just going to say it...the MissionWinnow livery is a curse

[evo_spook]

To re-investigate a matter that was dropped on Lap 3 (T2 collision) is so corrupt that it's beyond a joke. Also, the maFIA should've informed the team there would be an investigation or we'd not pitted Charles pure and simple and kept the extra two points thank you very much. That's the worst part. All sane people know that they'd never investigate the gray trash after a race in that manner. Sure, the endplate damage warranted a penalty but you can't do it TWO HOURS after it happened. The maFIA are so biased it's beyond a joke and it's been ongoing ever since we became a threat to the gray trash again. The team ran the strategy assuming Charles was in the clear due to the timelapse and then they do this? Absolutely dreadful. The whole point is, a simple notification of intent would've saved two points and we're still in contention for WDC podiums.

One thing I had to hand to Hammy though is that he sure had balls today, running so close to a car in front with a loose endplate. They must really trust the halo... damn. I'd backed off an additional second for sure seeing how bent the thing was.

you can't really complain about the FIA for this race?
Vettel didn't get a jump start and they was lucky Charles wasn't black flagged for this:
https://streamable.com/eb8is

[nani_s23]

Seriously, you are complaining about the FIA?

You should be thanking them.
Vettel was let off a jump start and they was lucky Charles wasn't black flagged.

Look at this
https://streamable.com/eb8is

Look at it at 12seconds, This was highly dangerous and could have killed Lewis

Don’t think so both were severe.
Vettel got away becoz, for the jump start there is reference point which is yellow line. If they cross that then it’s either drive through or 5sec time penalty. But in vettel case, he stalled behind yellow line n didn’t gain anything, so got away.
For Charles, it’s like 50-50. If it’s taken into consideration then max should get the same at Austria.

[512 TR]

Well you are wrong very wrong and your strategy would have just given Merc a 1-2 but we can leave it there as you are clearly not thinking.

What you fail to see (for whatever reason) is that in my scenario it would have been Bottas who wouldn't be able to pass Seb in the end, not Lewis. And that would have been for the win. Bottas, as he did, would have come out of the pits on lap 36 approx. 13-16 seconds behind Seb (Seb's loss on a harder compound would have been around 8-10 seconds, around half a second a lap). In those 17 or so laps remaining he wouldn't have got by Seb even on somewhat fresher softs (but in reality they wouldn't be that much fresher). The evidence is the fact that Lewis couldn't do it. Seb's last stop was on lap 31, Lewis on lap 42. Given that Seb, in my scenario, would have pitted somewhere around lap 28-33 for his single stop but then, again, you have to give him that delta cushion of 23-24 seconds for not doing another stop (which would have been around 13-16 seconds on track). So you think there is a huge difference of Seb stopping on lap 31 compared to my scenario? Please explain to readers why then Lewis couldn't pass?

Again, there was no huge tyre degradation at Suzuka this year because Pirelli brought a harder range compared to last year. A one-stopper was possible for a package like the SF90. They told everyone to do a two-stoppers for the show. For the fear of not being ultra boring.

[Greig]

What you fail to see (for whatever reason) is that in my scenario it would have been Bottas who wouldn't be able to pass Seb in the end, not Lewis. And that would have been for the win. Bottas, as he did, would have come out of the pits on lap 36 approx. 13-16 seconds behind Seb (Seb's loss on a harder compound would have been around 8-10 seconds, around half a second a lap). In those 17 or so laps remaining he wouldn't have got by Seb even on somewhat fresher softs (but in reality they wouldn't be that much fresher). The evidence is the fact that Lewis couldn't do it. Seb's last stop was on lap 31, Lewis on lap 42. Given that Seb, in my scenario, would have pitted somewhere around lap 28-33 for his single stop but then, again, you have to give him that delta cushion of 23-24 seconds for not doing another stop (which would have been around 13-16 seconds on track). So you think there is a huge difference of Seb stopping on lap 31 compared to my scenario? Please explain to readers why then Lewis couldn't pass?

Again, there was no huge tyre degradation at Suzuka this year because Pirelli brought a harder range compared to last year. A one-stopper was possible for a package like the SF90. They told everyone to do a two-stoppers for the show. For the fear of not being ultra boring.

yeah your plan to run slower tyres sure is a great one as Haas showed, yes there was high tyre deg which is why it was a 2 stop race otherwise it would be a 1 stop with softs and mediums. You are making up numbers that make no sense, Bottas on softs against Seb on mediums is not going to be half a second a lap LOL so stop making up numbers to try and prove something that is ridiculous to say the least.

Yeah the drivers just make it up when they come on the radio and say the tyres are gone, they also just start to go slower to make it look like they are losing the tyres all for the show it's all decided before the race hahahaha don't reply again to me please.

Also just as a footnote - Kimi -

“I don’t know why but in the first two stints we just had no front end in the car and no real grip at all. Once we swapped to soft tyres actually the car was pretty nice and I think I went like three or four seconds faster suddenly.

LOL yeah they went the right way on strategy off course....but he should only lose half a second according to your maths....and with that your point is put to bed.

[paolo lalli]

Mission curso not winnow. Forget the cigarette. Vetals poor start distracted Charles.Should be 100 % focused like the butler saw the opportunity and struck as fast as a snake.

[SS454]

you can't really complain about the FIA for this race?
Vettel didn't get a jump start and they was lucky Charles wasn't black flagged for this:
https://streamable.com/eb8is

That is exactly a good reason to complain. Not so much against the FIA, but the race stewards.

Vettel should have gotten a jump start penalty.

Charles' car clearly had damage that could lead to falling off on the track. That is a safety issue. He should have received a black flag to force him to pit.

Charles' crash into Max was pretty bad, should have been a 5 second penalty... DURING the race.

Stewards can't clear the driver, then reopen the investigation half way though the race, then say investigation will be done post race. It was a clear mistake in the first corner, give him the penalty right away so they can deal with it at the first pitstop.

Stewards also cannot give a penalty for not pitting when they did not give him a black flag. Can't give a penalty when no rule was broken.

The Stewards actions in this race is an embarrassment and should raise major red flags to the politics behind the scenes.

[512 TR]

yeah your plan to run slower tyres sure is a great one as Haas showed, yes there was high tyre deg which is why it was a 2 stop race otherwise it would be a 1 stop with softs and mediums. You are making up numbers that make no sense, Bottas on softs against Seb on mediums is not going to be half a second a lap LOL so stop making up numbers to try and prove something that is ridiculous to say the least.

Yeah the drivers just make it up when they come on the radio and say the tyres are gone, they also just start to go slower to make it look like they are losing the tyres all for the show it's all decided before the race hahahaha don't reply again to me please.

Also just as a footnote - Kimi -

LOL yeah they went the right way on strategy off course....but he should only lose half a second according to your maths....and with that your point is put to bed.

Again, please explain to other readers why Lewis couldn't pass Seb, who was on the medium tyre in the end, even though Seb had pitted on lap 31 and Lewis on lap 42. How do you explain that? You can't with your failed logic. Deal with it. You're just making a fool out of yourself. Maybe time to ban me again?

[Vettel165]

Again, please explain to other readers why Lewis couldn't pass Seb, who was on the medium tyre in the end, even though Seb had pitted on lap 31 and Lewis on lap 42. How do you explain that? You can't with your failed logic. Deal with it. You're just making a fool out of yourself. Maybe time to ban me again?

Dont worry I see your point, I always enjoy reading your very good and detailed analyses. A shame that we didnt start on mediums really, yes we might still lost at the start to the at least one Mercedes. But imagine they Mercedes are on softs with starting on them and of course the had to pit twice. Seb on the other hand can go long in the first stint and than pit after lap 25 for hard tyres. Mercedes would had no chance in that case with passing Seb on the straights with the track position won, but its over now.

[Greig]

Dont worry I see your point, I always enjoy reading your very good and detailed analyses. A shame that we didnt start on mediums really, yes we might still lost at the start to the at least one Mercedes. But imagine they Mercedes are on softs with starting on them and of course the had to pit twice. Seb on the other hand can go long in the first stint and than pit after lap 25 for hard tyres. Mercedes would had no chance in that case with passing Seb on the straights with the track position won, but its over now.

No good having straight line speed if you are so slow off the corners onto the straight though is it...basic F1 knowlege somewhat lacking. If running medium hard was faster then everyone would have done it quite simply.

[nani_s23]

After the race
Vettel having fun with Bottas in cool down room
https://twitter.com/f1/status/1183720105684787200?s=21

Vettel inspecting Ferrari FW vs Mercs FW
https://twitter.com/vetteleclerc/sta...769866752?s=21

Vettel approached Charles after the race
https://twitter.com/vetteleclerc/sta...458561537?s=21

Daniel Ricciardo Making fun of Charles
https://twitter.com/leclercnews/stat...719282176?s=21

Charles driving with one hand around 130R
https://twitter.com/scuderiaferrari/...810841600?s=21

[Brembo]

What about Max ; Charles' future team mate ??