Basic fact everyone is dancing around is simple. Vettel is out. He's not wanted at Ferrari. Leclerc is in - for next 4 years plus this season. Why would Ferrari allow Vettel to beat Leclerc? It would undermine the confidence and fan perception of the driver going forward and needing to carry the team for next 4 years. Ferrari have pinned their flag to Leclerc until 2024 and he needs to be perceived as capable of carrying the brand and the team. If you're Ferrari, don't you make sure that happens? How would you ensure this happens?
This is a sport of optimization of everything to get every tenth out of the car. It doesn't take much to throw off a driver. Loose things in the cockpit. Loose pedals driver needs to tighten himself. Objects like a tape measure left in the cockpit to rattle around during qualifying. Low bias rear brake disintegrating on only the sixth lap to undermine driver confidence in the equipment to push less. Aero. Parts. Software. It goes on and on and on.
Then, experience, seniority, status. Why should a 4x champion rip his guts out in equipment that barely gets a sniff of the podium? Most likely mid pack most of the time. A rookie who's won nothing obviously will push because he's hungry to prove himself. Vettel has 4 championships, over 50 wins and poles - he's not hungry for the hors d'oeuvres Leclerc is happy to fill up on right now in his young years. Vettel wants the main course, and he knows right away if the equipment is capable of delivering it.
Vettel has four championships, finished second to the mighty Mercedes domination twice. Charles has won two races for Ferrari, which last I checked is seven times fewer than Sebastian. He's shiny and new and everyone is hyping him up at Ferrari. Will he live up to the hype? Or will there be excuses and Ferrari politics like with Kimi, Alonso and Vettel before him? I guess we'll watch and find out.
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