2022 Predictions

[aroutis]

You share the same lack of comprehension as tifosi1993.

"Not bringing any real updates is comforting and concerning at the same time. It can suggest the car is good and the real car correlates with their simulations. That's fantastic. However it may also mean the car is near it's maximum potential already. That is not good."

That doesn't say "Ferrari is maxed out, it's as good as the car will be, the end" does it?

While I understand your point of view (re: the lack of potential in development of the car) , I doubt this is the case here.
I believe that it's simply exactly what Binotto said, ie. that this is the first iteration of the car that's been under development for quite a long time, since the correlation of data in the simulator works with what they see in the tests is excellent,
they just fine tune parts (like the floor), and (to that, btw I agree wholeheartedly) they bring upgrades to a need to basis.

You don't bring upgrades just to bring upgrades. My prediction? They will bring upgrades when they see they're either behind or the competition is close.
Not just because say Merc or RBR or AM bring upgrades.

[SS454]

While I understand your point of view (re: the lack of potential in development of the car) , I doubt this is the case here.
I believe that it's simply exactly what Binotto said, ie. that this is the first iteration of the car that's been under development for quite a long time, since the correlation of data in the simulator works with what they see in the tests is excellent,
they just fine tune parts (like the floor), and (to that, btw I agree wholeheartedly) they bring upgrades to a need to basis.

You don't bring upgrades just to bring upgrades. My prediction? They will bring upgrades when they see they're either behind or the competition is close.
Not just because say Merc or RBR or AM bring upgrades.

I really hope Ferrari bring updates with the front wing/nose and make use of their modular design. They spent the time and resources on a solution that allows them to easily make changes to the nose without compromising their crash tests. That's one area I was expecting to see Ferrari try a few things during testing, but it didn't show up. Like you said, you don't bring new parts just to play with, there has to be a reason. The development war should be fun to follow in 2022.

[Greig]

I really hope Ferrari bring updates with the front wing/nose and make use of their modular design. They spent the time and resources on a solution that allows them to easily make changes to the nose without compromising their crash tests. That's one area I was expecting to see Ferrari try a few things during testing, but it didn't show up. Like you said, you don't bring new parts just to play with, there has to be a reason. The development war should be fun to follow in 2022.

You could sketch up some improvements?

[SS454]

You could sketch up some improvements?

I certainly know what I'd like to try and see how it performs in the CFD models. I believe a full slot gap between the 1st and 2nd element is a better design. I can't see why it wouldn't be on the Ferrari either, but we obviously don't have access to their flow models. It's an area I'll be curious to see if Ferrari make changes during the season.

[Silent Bob]

I'm so confused. He's made more contradictory statements, first he states no one knows where the other cars are (including Ferrari), then he states Ferrari is behind? Now I just think he's playing politics, because if he doesn't know where the other cars are, how can he know he's behind them?

Here Tony;

Binotto has some fighting words.



https://www.formu1a.uno/binotto-ferr...nda-posizione/

[Tony]

Here Tony;

Binotto has some fighting words.



https://www.formu1a.uno/binotto-ferr...nda-posizione/

Thanks bud, appreciate that article :)

[Brembo]

noted.....I'll take it up under advisement.....

I clearly remember when Crashstappen was coming up in F-1 looking good, I talked positive about his future here and was told to go find a Max forum; stop trolling! The same then and now when Lewis has a good race I'm trolling and need to go find a Lewis forum. When I wished the best for Rubens every race when he was with Ferrari , I was hated even more than ever. Just the mention of Ruben's name was enough to be kicked off the forum. Binotto should be kicked off our Ferrari forum for saying 3rd is the best we can hope for one day and then say we have a shot at podiums at best

[SS454]

Testing is over, the race is 1 week away. Let's hear your predictions for the season.

WCC:

1) Red Bull - They have gone extreme with an aero philosophy that has been proven to work since 2017. Their downwash coke-bottle design has proved to work since the early 2010s. Newey has been around long enough that ground effects likely are not a steep learning curve for him. I saw the most telemetry from Red Bull (mostly Perez) and it suggested even with the fastest times set, they still held back. I haven't seen it myself, but most people are saying the Red Bull now has the least amount of porpoising.

2) Mercedes - I think they have the most potential to develop. I don't think they have the car sorted yet, the porpoising issue is still quite bad for them. The no sidepod design has some aero advantages for sure, but it also shoves the packaging somewhat higher and their COG may not be optimal. It's also very close to the centerline of the car, which is a good thing. The one sure thing Mercedes will have is a strong power unit. No reason not to believe they won't still have the best PU once again. Watching Russell's fast lap in Day 3 testing, the car accelerated the fastest. Reports (even from Ferrari) say Mercedes looks to be the fastest in the slow corners. That's significant.

3) Ferrari - They may actually come out of the gate very strong. I'd have to believe they have the best understanding of their car since it's stayed pretty much the same since launch day. It's been stable, reliable, and appears to be quick. Not bringing any real updates is comforting and concerning at the same time. It can suggest the car is good and the real car correlates with their simulations. That's fantastic. However it may also mean the car is near it's maximum potential already. That is not good. Mercedes and Red Bull both had HUGE, B spec updates before the first race. This suggests the rate of learning on this 2022 Formula was off the charts. Ferrari had loads of CFD and Wind Tunnel time, and the design they went with has yet to evolve. Their PU is still a question mark.

4) Mclaren - Should still enjoy the Mercedes power, but I never saw them looking all that impressive during testing. In fact it seems they struggled more as testing went on. Probably because other teams figured things out better than they did. They should have the team and resources to solidly be in 4th place, but they seem to be a good bit off the top 3.

5) AlphaTauri - No surprise they share a similar design to Red Bull, which as I stated earlier is a design that makes sense to me. Mr 6th place Pierre should still be a star to his team. Yuki remains to prove himself worthy of F1. I ranked him near the bottom in 2021, and I believe his lack of performance will hurt the team in the WCC points. The car isn't as fast as I expected (from what can be judged in testing), but I think the potential is there and it looks better than the following.

Ranks 6-10 are a toss up, which is exciting.

6) Alpine - At times they seem like they could be in the bottom 3, their engine is probably the worst. Reliability could be a huge issue for them. Realistically they could be as low as 9th or 10th by the end of the year. But they have a very solid driver line up and good resources. While I expect more then a few DNF's, I also could see them getting double points here and there.

7) Alfa Romeo - Another long shot perhaps, as they easily could be 9th or 10th. If the Ferrari engine is good, the team can grow and score some good points. They have always been there to scoop up points, even being the 2nd worst team last year. With Zhou money and Bottas experience and good attitude, I think they will have a decent year.

8) Aston Martin - the car has looked pretty bad in testing to me, but they still have that Mercedes power and a big check book to maximize the budget cap. The team should easily be 6th, but it would not surprise me if they finish 10th. Ever since Stroll took over, the bang for buck production coming out of the factory just hasn't been there.

9) Williams - I suspect they could be as good as the 6th best car to start the season. The driver line up is still suspect. Latifi might be the worst driver on the grid. Albon has been out for a year. Since enjoying Mercedes hybrid power from 2014, the chassis and aero departments have been a let down each and every year. No reason to expect anything different in 2022.

10) Haas - The team had some struggles in testing already. Losing their money sponsor will likely have implications on the team as the season goes on. Hopefully the car is at least capable of mixing it up and not just a 19th & 20th paced car. Mick still needs to prove he can compete. Magnussen has been gone for a year too. Should be better than last year, but the team has some issues.


WDC:

1) Verstappen - if he has the best car, he should win it
2) Hamilton - F1 will make sure he's in the hunt for his 8th, if the car is as good as I think
3) Leclerc - give him a winning car and he'll get up there
4) Sainz - most consistent driver last year
5) Russell - hope he beats Hamilton, but it's still Lewis' team.
6) Perez - May finish 3rd if the car is the best, but is still a wingman to Max when necessary.
7) Norris - won't have the car under him.
8) Gasly - MVP of 2021, silently scoopin points.
9) Ricciardo - still will be slower than Norris
10) Alonso - one of the best drivers in an incapable car. Tradition.

So let's see how we did with our predictions:

1) Red Bull [Predicted 1] did in fact have the best package this season, though I wouldn't say they had a dominant car. Having a handle on the porpoising right from the start proved to be a big advantage, and when the TD39 came into play, their performance didn't get affected at all, while others did, thus increasing any gap they had.

2) Ferrari [Predicted 3] have to given some big credit and 2022 has to be considered a success. After 2020 and 2021, to transform into a winning team is pretty impressive. I think Rory Byrne deserves a huge amount of the credit as once he came back to work on the 2022 car, the car suddenly is fast. The unusual sidepod design proved to be effective, but it did show it's limitations on the development, which I predicted. Despite Ferrari's claims, I think the TD39 had a big negative impact on their performance. With the car dropped as low as possible, it was the best car. And that's why 2022 is such a disappointment. Not only did Ferrari bring out a car capable of winning, it was the best car in the first 6 or so races. They just threw it away. So many strategy mistakes, mechanical failures, and mistakes from both drivers. Usually we always hope the next season Ferrari will bring a better car, hoping for the best car. What can we hope for now? They already did deliver the best car, and the squandered it away.

3) Mercedes [Predicted 2] eventually did figure out the car to some degree. Seems they did have the most potential to develop. The 1-2 result in Brazil where they were without a doubt the best car is pretty incredible from where they started. We can't ignore they were the lobbyists for the TD39 which everyone predicted would help them, and thus it did. Another good Xmas gift to the FIA care of Toto Wolff should be coming. They also have brought a tremendous amount of updates. Not just little things like mirrors, but floor changes. What will everyone say if they are said to below the budget cap? One area they were strong all season was the race starts. The car was a rocket off the line. Will be very curious which direction they go for their 2023 car.

4) Alpine [Predicted 6] went with the speed over reliability philosophy. It paid off. They also had a very aggressive development strategy. The car was extremely good in low downforce settings, but they had the car working on most tracks by the end of the year. Alonso was off the charts at times. Unfortunately he was the victim of the most reliability issues the team had. The reliability whoas that had to be expected it must be said. Perhaps the best thing going for them was their Power Unit was good, very good. Signing Otmar is also a huge win for the team. Best of the rest is pretty much like winning the championship for the mid field teams.

5) McLaren [Predicted 4] didn't finish that far from Alpine (14 pts) but they never really figured out their car. Is it a fundamental issue with their chassis, or do they still not have an understanding of the ground effects? 2023 may gives some answers to that. Despite some up and downs, they were in the hunt for 4th all year which was exciting for fans.

6) Alfa Romeo [Predicted 7] benefited from a very very strong Ferrari PU. They were at the mercy of a weak Ferrari PU in 2020 and 2021, so it's good to see what their chassis department could do. Unfortunately they couldn't develop as much as other teams, but 6th is about as good as they were going to get.

7) Aston Martin [Predicted 8] still can't be happy with that result. All the money to throw around, stole team members from Red Bull, copied the Red Bull design and made a huge upgrade mid season. Yet often was one of the bottom 3 teams. The Mercedes engine was good for them, and they eventually started to figure out the car. It looked MUCH better in the final handful of races of the season. This has to be encouraging for them going into next year, especially with Fernando Alonso joining the team.

8) Haas [Predicted 10] have to be extremely pleased overall. Last season they didnt even score points and was several seconds off the pace. They even got a pole position this year. However, the reality is they dropped like a stone. They were one of the few cars that made the minimum weight to start the year, and once other teams got their weight down and developed their floors, the Haas started to fall to the bottom to the point where they were one of the worst teams. Given their similar design to Ferrari, I'd expect they were impacted by the TD39 as well. Had potential to finish 6th or 7th, but is lucky to finish 8th.

9) AlphaTauri [Predicted 5]. I sure missed the mark on this one. How a team so closely linked to the Red Bull had such a poor performing car is beyond me. Gasly who IMO was last season's MVP driver, was awful got beat by Yuki on numerous occasions. They never got the car to perform, and were always just enough off the pace to not fight for those final points positions. A huge failure on all accounts by the team.

10) Williams [Predicted 9] had a clean slate to figure out a decent chassis. They tried some things, but they failed. What do they need to do to improve? They have new owners, they have more money from outside sources, they were still funded by Latifi's family. The budget cap and windtunnel/CFD time is all to their advantage. Albon is a very good driver. Yet they are still the worst? What an embarrassment at this point.


WDC:

1) Verstappen [Predicted 1] - as predicted, with the best car he wins. He didnt always have the best car, but he still wins a record breaking 15 races. That's scary.
2) Leclerc [Predicted 3] - the car was much better than expected, he was a qualifying thunderbolt and is likely top 2 drivers on the grid at this point. Still makes too many mistakes though.
3) Perez [Predicted 6] - He still isn't an elite driver, but he shows his huge value to the team. Even though data suggests he did deliberately spin in Monaco. He didn't throw away his opportunities that's for sure.
4) Russell [Predicted 5] - "Mr Saturday" wasn't quite the quali phenom he was said to be. He became Mr Consistency which is more fitting. Though he did have a lot of luck in the beginning of 2022, and he showed some major flaws in his game. His ability to cause crashes and blame the other guy seems to be one of his traits, and not a one off. By my account, I overrated him. Yet he still got a pole, a sprint win, and a race win, and beat a 7x champ.
5) Sainz [Predicted 4] - Didn't perform as well as expected in the beginning of the season, but I think that's just because Leclerc was that much better. Give him a load of credit for working hard and closing that gap. Had his share of bad luck, and a few mistakes as well. Had the car to finish 4th, but too many DNF's.
6) Hamilton [Predicted 2] - did not have the dominant car he has been so used to. Has a teammate that isn't a clear #2 and is a worthy opponent. I'd say for the first time didn't have a car capable of winning, but that isn't true as the car was the best car in Brazil. Despite his lack of success in 2022, it should be recognized that Lewis Hamilton had some very good drives. Typically he was the faster qualifier, he had some of the more impressive drives, and scored a lot more points in the 2nd half of the season than his teammate. But to be the leading Mercedes driver and get beaten by Russell in so many ways. That certainly will not help his legacy.
7) Norris [Predicted 7] - he might be considerably underrated. The McLaren was not that great in 2022. Yet somehow he got the starting positions and race results each and every week. Being a funny, charming young man with so much potential, it's a bit sad to see how the British media is hyper focused on Hamilton and Russell, when Lando could be the real British talent.
8) Ocon [unpredicted] - When it was time for Q3, Ocon often would find a little bit more than Alonso would find. Wouldn't always beat him, but he did seem to perform when it mattered. And his results shows this.
9) Alonso [Predicted 10] - had some of the best drives of anyone in 2022. Shows that despite his age, can still be one of the best drivers on the grid. The most entertaining driver of 2022.
10) Bottas [unpredicted] - despite getting beat by Zhou in many quali sessions, he still was able to show up on Sundays. His WDC standings is from his great performances in the first half of the season. 7 of his 9 points finishes came in the first 9 races.

[Brembo]

Lewis getting beat for 2021 WDC by Massi among the worst sporting frauds in history. Was Merc in on it? Meanwhile the Lewis; Russell competition is great to see, I wish Carlos and Charles have the same with Podium results for each driver.

[Redfive]

Lewis getting beat for 2021 WDC by Massi among the worst sporting frauds in history. Was Merc in on it? Meanwhile the Lewis; Russell competition is great to see, I wish Carlos and Charles have the same with Podium results for each driver.

Lewis losing the title that way in AD 2021 had me laughing so much I almost broke a rib, it was a glorious thing to see!

[Brembo]

Lewis losing the title that way in AD 2021 had me laughing so much I almost broke a rib, it was a glorious thing to see!

I'd like to know how much $$$ was moved under the table to make it stick ! Including Sr Lewis! I'm sure Massi got his cut as long as he keeps quiet! Sr Lewis doing what he loves and getting paid Millions $$ with a few more years to break more records; even that 8 WDC. I'm sure he's one happy guy.

[Nick Singer]

Has the '2023 Predictions' thread started yet?

[SS454]

Has the '2023 Predictions' thread started yet?

Not from me. I think it's too early. I think it's more appropriate to at least wait until all the cars hit the track. Last year the launch cars often were quite a bit different than the real cars.

[Nick Singer]

Not from me. I think it's too early. I think it's more appropriate to at least wait until all the cars hit the track. Last year the launch cars often were quite a bit different than the real cars.

Indeed. Hard to know how everyone will shape up come pre-season testing.

The development race this year has been interesting. Mercedes get the prize for turning a donkey into a race winner, Ferrari for doing it the other way round - greyhound to hippopotamus, McLaren - and several others - have flattered to deceive then returned to mediocrity. Williams remain a bit of a joke.

Lots to look forward to.

[Brembo]

Lewis losing the title that way in AD 2021 had me laughing so much I almost broke a rib, it was a glorious thing to see!

Nothing was more glorious than Shumy's return with his home German team @ Merc and scoring all Zeros for 3 years!! It was Masi not Max that kept the GOAT Sir Lewis from his 8th WDC to go on record with 103 wins and on and on. If only Todt, Ross and Rubens could have been there!!

[SS454]

Nothing was more glorious than Shumy's return with his home German team @ Merc and scoring all Zeros for 3 years!! It was Masi not Max that kept the GOAT Sir Lewis from his 8th WDC to go on record with 103 wins and on and on. If only Todt, Ross and Rubens could have been there!!

You must have mental issues to always feel the need to bash Schumacher on a Ferrari forum. Unfortunately for yourself, you always seem to be wrong.

Schumacher did earn a pole that he was robbed of. He did get a podium. He was the faster qualifier in 2012. So not all zeros.

Still can't accept that Hamilton was at fault for his own loss hey? I guess brake magic in Baku was somehow not his fault?

[jgonzalesm6]

Nothing was more glorious than Shumy's return with his home German team @ Merc and scoring all Zeros for 3 years!! It was Masi not Max that kept the GOAT Sir Lewis from his 8th WDC to go on record with 103 wins and on and on. If only Todt, Ross and Rubens could have been there!!

Schumacher at Mercedes helped Toto "setup" the car for all 3 years. Lewis is riding on the coattails or foundation from Schumacher of what he has enjoyed from 2014 thru 2020.

[Brembo]

Schumacher at Mercedes helped Toto "setup" the car for all 3 years. Lewis is riding on the coattails or foundation from Schumacher of what he has enjoyed from 2014 thru 2020.

Helping Toto "set up" for 3 years so as to beat Ferrari! What a guy!!! As far as Sr. Lewis goes , even if he does not win another WDC, or race or add to all the other records he already broke ; he already is the G.O.A.T of F -!. Too bad
at the time; Shumy didn't come back and build that foundation with Ferrari . He might even have won a race!

[Toothlessrage*]

Helping Toto "set up" for 3 years so as to beat Ferrari! What a guy!!! As far as Sr. Lewis goes , even if he does not win another WDC, or race or add to all the other records he already broke ; he already is the G.O.A.T of F -!. Too bad
at the time; Shumy didn't come back and build that foundation with Ferrari . He might even have won a race!

No wonder Sr. Lewis is the GOAT, he learned from the best!
He had Bottas, the subservient, to do his bidding just like Rubens.

But, it is really unfortunate that Sr. Lewis couldn't break the record for a win every year.
Unlike Sr. Lewis though, Russell didn't have a problem winning a race this year.

Maybe Sr. Lewis will fall into a roll like Bottas, Perez, Webber, Rubens, Fisichella, Coulthard, Frentzen, Ralph, Irvine, etc.

[Brembo]

Russell's win for sure is a big deal! I believe there's more to come. Back to Ferrari for 2023 I hope Vasseur @TP. will not favor his close friend Charles to the point of Carlos needing to fight for an even shot every race. Then again there's Santander $$$ watching the races.

[racingbradley]

I just hope the fastest driver at every track gets a chance to win with no engine or strategy problems.

[Brembo]

[QUOTE=racingbradley;1074250]I just hope the fastest driver at every track gets a chance to win with no engine or strategy problems.[/Q

I couldn't agree more! `I can't remember when F-1 had so many possible winners as far as drivers go. And as you so well said no engine or strategy problems will make each race a "Race to the finish!"

[racingbradley]

[QUOTE=Brembo;1074251]

I just hope the fastest driver at every track gets a chance to win with no engine or strategy problems.[/Q

I couldn't agree more! `I can't remember when F-1 had so many possible winners as far as drivers go. And as you so well said no engine or strategy problems will make each race a "Race to the finish!"

I did mean the fastest Ferrari driver. The others don't count.

[wisepie]

[QUOTE=racingbradley;1074252]

I did mean the fastest Ferrari driver. The others don't count.

Quite right too and very succinctly put!

[Greig]

Schumacher at Mercedes helped Toto "setup" the car for all 3 years. Lewis is riding on the coattails or foundation from Schumacher of what he has enjoyed from 2014 thru 2020.

Pretty sure MS had left when Toto joined Merc?

[Toothlessrage*]

Russell's win for sure is a big deal! I believe there's more to come. Back to Ferrari for 2023 I hope Vasseur @TP. will not favor his close friend Charles to the point of Carlos needing to fight for an even shot every race. Then again there's Santander $$$ watching the races.

Me too!
I just hope Carlos doesn't have to fight for an even shot at every race just like: Bottas, Perez, etc.
But, unlike them, Santander is there to give Carlos a helping hand.

[Brembo]

Russell allowed to race against Sr Lewis got him a win + out scoring him with points! I wish the same @ Ferrari with regards to both drivers in the race to win. Enough already with Max and his 1 &a 1/2 WDCs!