Carlos Sainz - Where will he end up?

[Greig]

I imagine as he is driving for a contract we might see a new Carlos this season, where do we think he could end up probably Merc or Red Bull or Aston Martin possibly?

[Tifoso Svedese]

Mercedes would be mad not to sign him considering the alternatives, assuming the Verstappen transfer rumours are false.

I don't think Red Bull would risk putting him in an already volatile intra-team situation with Verstappen due to their history, even though both have matured since. There could be a sizeable domino effect should Verstappen pull the plug on Red Bull for Mercedes, effectively triggering a buyout of Piastri from McLaren by Horner and Webber. If that was the case, Sainz could easily be back in orange.

Ferrari could be the big losers of the situation should Hamilton's decline be permanent. Norris was the only driver worth pursuing to replace Sainz for the near future assuming Verstappen was a lock at Red Bull at the time.

[FerrariF60]

Mercedes would be mad not to sign him considering the alternatives, assuming the Verstappen transfer rumours are false.

I don't think Red Bull would risk putting him in an already volatile intra-team situation with Verstappen due to their history, even though both have matured since. There could be a sizeable domino effect should Verstappen pull the plug on Red Bull for Mercedes, effectively triggering a buyout of Piastri from McLaren by Horner and Webber. If that was the case, Sainz could easily be back in orange.

back with his old former teammate Norris

[tifosi1993]

Aston Martin

[jgonzalesm6]

If Sainz keeps performing the way he is currently for the rest of the season, his "stock price" will rise and can go anywhere he chooses knowing full well he won't have an F1 seat in 2025.

Sorta the opposite of what a 7x WDC title holder is currently doing for 2024. Whatta waste!!

[SFTifoso]

Make Hamilton the 3rd driver problem solved

[Silent Bob]

Which teams have openings that he'll want to go to? Merc for sure is wide open but they may elect to take Kimi instead, figuring Russel can lead them for awhile. Aston? Could be a good fit. Sauber? Have to suffer a couple years for sure and who knows when they'll be competitive.
If not Merc, Aston makes the most sense. No where else to go really.

[Tifoso Svedese]

Sainz really reminds me of a prime Jenson Button in the sense that he makes the most of a lack of pure raw speed through hard work and careful analysis. He'd be an asset to any team if not as lead driver. Leclerc is more of a prime Mika Häkkinen. Everyone knows who's the got the highest ceiling, but they've been a unique and fun pairing for these years. The trouble is that Ferrari as per usual have been wasting driver talent down the drain.

[Brembo]

Sainz found the cure; he drives for himself as best he can. It seems to be really working.

[aroutis]

I think the most possible team for him is AM. RBR is not a good fit since they don't want a too strong opponent for Max. Merc is a *****show so if he went there he would go for the money and know that he would be burried.
Another reason for him to go to AM is aramco.

[Silent Bob]

Sainz found the cure; he drives for himself as best he can. It seems to be really working.

Always been his way really, hasn't it.

Hard to pinpoint but I've always felt that Leclerc was more of the team player.

[Silent Bob]

I think the most possible team for him is AM. RBR is not a good fit since they don't want a too strong opponent for Max. Merc is a *****show so if he went there he would go for the money and know that he would be burried.
Another reason for him to go to AM is aramco.

Merc can turn it around pretty quick if they come out with another killer engine in 2026. How good is the Honda going to be?

[FerrariF60]

Merc can turn it around pretty quick if they come out with another killer engine in 2026. How good is the Honda going to be?

So for 2026, is it a clean slate to the power units?? As in, the actual ICE will be new??? Or still use the current ICE (with not being allowed to improve on it, except reliability issues) and then a new KERS system, more powerful that could be a gamechanger for whoever gets it spot on.

As for red bull, are they NOT going away form honda for 2026 new regulations?? I thought they are partnered with FORD, or am I missing something?

[FerrariF60]

Merc can turn it around pretty quick if they come out with another killer engine in 2026. How good is the Honda going to be?

So for 2026, is it a clean slate to the power units?? As in, the actual ICE will be new??? Or still use the current ICE (with not being allowed to improve on it, except reliability issues) and then a new KERS system, more powerful that could be a gamechanger for whoever gets it spot on.

As for red bull, are they NOT going away form honda for 2026 new regulations?? I thought they are partnered with FORD, or am I missing something?

[jgonzalesm6]

Merc can turn it around pretty quick if they come out with another killer engine in 2026. How good is the Honda going to be?

Not gonna happen with "Merc and a killer engine for 2026."

Everyone will be getting rid of the turbo and MGU-H. The KERS unit will be bumped up from 160kw to 350kw for 2026.
That's it. Fuel flow will still be 100kgh.

The questions is:

1) Whose going to get the aero right.
2) Whose going to get the suspension geometry right.


Cars will be somewhat smaller and lighter than the previous cars.

[FerrariF60]

Not gonna happen with "Merc and a killer engine for 2026."

Everyone will be getting rid of the turbo and MGU-H. The KERS unit will be bumped up from 160kw to 350kw for 2026.
That's it. Fuel flow will still be 100kgh.

The questions is:

1) Whose going to get the aero right.
2) Whose going to get the suspension geometry right.


Cars will be somewhat smaller and lighter than the previous cars.

so the turbo will not be part of the 2026 engine?? are you sure??
i thought the turbo stays and ONLY the MGU-H is eliminated.....but i could be wrong

if no turbo, how are the cars gonna still make 1000HP

[jgonzalesm6]

so the turbo will not be part of the 2026 engine?? are you sure??
i thought the turbo stays and ONLY the MGU-H is eliminated.....but i could be wrong

if no turbo, how are the cars gonna still make 1000HP

No turbo. The MGU-K will provide nearly 3x more power than the current MGU-K. Engine plus MGU-K should provide nearly 1000hp.

[aroutis]

Merc can turn it around pretty quick if they come out with another killer engine in 2026. How good is the Honda going to be?

I really don't think you will see merc being competitive for a good while. You might as well forget about them.

[Rishu]

Currently looks like this way

RBR- Verstappen- Perez
Mercedes- Alonso-Russel
Aston- Sainz-Stroll

Merc are thinking Antonelli, Alonso can accept 1+1 deal with Merc. RBR would probably keep same line up, Ricciardo is not setting track on fire. Aston would like to have a driver like Sainz who can give them medium term stability.

[Silent Bob]

Not gonna happen with "Merc and a killer engine for 2026."

Everyone will be getting rid of the turbo and MGU-H. The KERS unit will be bumped up from 160kw to 350kw for 2026.
That's it. Fuel flow will still be 100kgh.

The questions is:

1) Whose going to get the aero right.
2) Whose going to get the suspension geometry right.


Cars will be somewhat smaller and lighter than the previous cars.

It's pretty big reg change. We've seen the last couple changes, one team has got it better than others. The 'power unit' can make a big difference, mainly in the first couple years. I don't think every engine manufacturer will obtain parity right away.

Red Bull making their own PU might not be a bonus at the start. There will probably be some issues at first.

I wouldn't count Merc out. Only problem they have now is Allison. They need aero guys. Unless they decide to walk away from F1, which is possible, they need to be considered a top team.

[jgonzalesm6]

It's pretty big reg change. We've seen the last couple changes, one team has got it better than others. The 'power unit' can make a big difference, mainly in the first couple years. I don't think every engine manufacturer will obtain parity right away.

Red Bull making their own PU might not be a bonus at the start. There will probably be some issues at first.

I wouldn't count Merc out. Only problem they have now is Allison. They need aero guys. Unless they decide to walk away from F1, which is possible, they need to be considered a top team.

With this 2026 reg change:

1) Currently the ICE alone makes anywhere from 830 to 850hp.

2) The bump in kw from 160 to 350 equals to a 469hp bump.

Those 2 figures alone make around 1200hp for 2026.

So this 2026 change isn't like 2014 where Mercedes were WAAAAAY ahead of everyone else horsepower wise. (like 100hp advantage)

[Silent Bob]

With this 2026 reg
change:

1) Currently the ICE alone makes anywhere from 830 to 850hp.

2) The bump in kw from 160 to 350 equals to a 469hp bump.

Those 2 figures alone make around 1200hp for 2026.

So this 2026 change isn't like 2014 where Mercedes were WAAAAAY ahead of everyone else horsepower wise. (like 100hp advantage)

You can quote any numbers you want but big reg changes can mean big surprises and usually 1 team ends up getting it right better than the others, it's been a trend.

2005 - tires need to last whole race - Michelin

2009 - double diffuser - Brawn

2014 - hybrids - Merc

2022 - ground effects - Ferrari and RB until TD39 - then just RB

2026 is a pretty big change, there is the possibility one team will get an edge.
I hope it's Ferrari, but can't rule out the others.

[jgonzalesm6]

You can quote any numbers you want but big reg changes can mean big surprises and usually 1 team ends up getting it right better than the others, it's been a trend.

2005 - tires need to last whole race - Michelin

2009 - double diffuser - Brawn

2014 - hybrids - Merc

2022 - ground effects - Ferrari and RB until TD39 - then just RB

2026 is a pretty big change, there is the possibility one team will get an edge.
I hope it's Ferrari, but can't rule out the others.

Totally aware of the list on your post.

These 2026 regs is a dumbing down of the current regs.

1) ICE remains the same.
2) KERS gets a bump in kw.
3) Smaller cars in width and length.
4) Cars will be lighter.

It's not like any of this is "new" for the designers.

RB already fired up their 2026 engine so currently they're 2 years ahead. I haven't heard anyone else fire up their 2026 engine.

[Silent Bob]

Bigger changes than just your list.

Fuel will have to be 100% sustainable and not fossil derived

Fuel flow will change to energy flow rate vs mass flow rate, so less fuel will be allowed to flow to engine

70kg of fuel vs 120kg

350 kw of electrical deployment plus increased brake regen

No MGU-h- turbo will be different, maybe big, maybe small - no help from H to stop lag

F1 expects less horsepower from ICE. Expects MGU-K to make more of an impact so having your ICE running doesn't mean you have an edge if someone has a better MGU-K or better brake regen or deployment or better non fossil derived fuels. Lots of variables to give a team an edge.
Even making the cars smaller may mean new learning curves for ground effect downforce.

[Silent Bob]

How can Red Bull be 2 years ahead on their engine? When were the regs finalized? They only just created their engine department in 2021 when Honda said they were leaving.

[jgonzalesm6]

How can Red Bull be 2 years ahead on their engine? When were the regs finalized? They only just created their engine department in 2021 when Honda said they were leaving.

I have the link to the video IF you would like to see it.

[Silent Bob]

Oh I have no doubt about you having a video of them firing up an engine, I'm sure they did. I doubt that is going to be the final variation of their engine, if it is, then they'll be hurting come 2026.
But for them to be 2 years in front of every other team? I don't think that is possible. I don't think the regs have been finalized for 2 years. The fuel is still being worked on, it's way to early to say who is ahead.
I could be wrong.

[jgonzalesm6]

Oh I have no doubt about you having a video of them firing up an engine, I'm sure they did. I doubt that is going to be the final variation of their engine, if it is, then they'll be hurting come 2026.
But for them to be 2 years in front of every other team? I don't think that is possible. I don't think the regs have been finalized for 2 years. The fuel is still being worked on, it's way to early to say who is ahead.
I could be wrong.

DHL is using synthetic fuels to transport F1 in the European Community. I'm sure RedBull is using synthetic fuel to run the 2026 engine.

Vettel ran his FW14B 2 years ago on an F1 track using synthetic fuels and that's a naturally aspirated V10 engine. Zero emissions from the tailpipe.

[Silent Bob]

Vasseur doesnt think Red Bull is so far ahead.

https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/r...d-of-schedule/


"However, Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur does not believe Red Bull’s concerns are a sign that its Powertrains division is ahead of anybody else.

Vasseur said that simulating energy use over a lap and generating speed traces is “one of the first things” any manufacturer has done. “We are all at the same point,” Vasseur reckoned.

“To try to understand where we have to go, it’s not a matter of plus or minus 5% [on the power ratio].

“We are not in the fine-tuning [stage yet], it’s not that one team is more advanced than the other on ’26. We don’t have the regulations [to progress further].”






This article shows the RB engine, but it's in a very early stage still in November 2023. Definitely not 2 years ahead of everyone else.



https://www.pmw-magazine.com/news/en...celerator.html

[jgonzalesm6]

Vasseur doesnt think Red Bull is so far ahead.

https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/r...d-of-schedule/


"However, Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur does not believe Red Bull’s concerns are a sign that its Powertrains division is ahead of anybody else.

Vasseur said that simulating energy use over a lap and generating speed traces is “one of the first things” any manufacturer has done. “We are all at the same point,” Vasseur reckoned.

“To try to understand where we have to go, it’s not a matter of plus or minus 5% [on the power ratio].

“We are not in the fine-tuning [stage yet], it’s not that one team is more advanced than the other on ’26. We don’t have the regulations [to progress further].”






This article shows the RB engine, but it's in a very early stage still in November 2023. Definitely not 2 years ahead of everyone else.



https://www.pmw-magazine.com/news/en...celerator.html

Those links to the articles you posted are from 2023.

The video link of RedBulls 2026 engine came out a few days ago.