Number Crunching for Abu Dhabi

[steelstallions]

Alonso will win if he finishes:

* 2nd or better
* 3rd or 4th and Webber 2nd or lower
* 5th and Webber 2nd or lower and Vettel 2nd or lower
* 6th and Webber 3rd or lower and Vettel 2nd or lower
* 7th or 8th and Webber 4th or lower and Vettel 2nd or lower
* 9th and Webber 5th or lower and Vettel 3rd or lower
* 10th and Webber 6th or lower and Vettel 3rd or lower
* 11th or lower and Webber 6th or lower and Hamilton 2nd or lower and Vettel 3rd or lower

Webber will win if he finishes:

* 1st and Alonso is 3rd or lower
* 2nd and Vettel is 3rd or lower and Alonso is 6th or lower
* 3rd and Vettel 2nd or lower and Alonso 7th or lower
* 4th and Vettel 2nd or lower and Alonso 9th or lower
* 5th and Vettel 3rd or lower and Alonso 10th or lower


Hamilton will win if he finishes:

* 1st and Webber 6th or lower and Vettel 3rd or lower and Alonso 11th or lower


Vettel will win if he finishes:

* 1st and Alonso 5th or lower
* 2nd and Webber 5th or lower and Alonso 9th or lower
here are also a number of tie break scenarios, including a very interesting tiebreak (I've highlighted them):

* Webber 2nd and Vettel 1st - tied on 256 points: Vettel wins with 5 wins
* Webber 2nd and Alonso 5th - tied on 256 points: Alonso wins with 5 wins
* Webber 4th and Alonso 8th - tied on 250 points: Alonso wins with 5 wins
* Webber 5th and Alonso 9th - tied on 248 points: Alonso wins with 5 wins
* Hamilton 1st and Alonso 10th - tied on 247 points: Alonso wins with 5 wins
* Vettel 1st and Alonso 5th - tied on 256 points: Vettel wins with 3 4th places
* Vettel 1st, Webber 2nd and Alonso 5th: Vettel wins with 3 4th places


So to summarise - assuming each driver has an equal chance of finishing in each position:

* Alonso has a 76.3% chance of winning the championship
* Webber has a 15.6% chance of winning the championship
* Vettel has a 6.3% chance of winning the championship
* Hamilton has a 2.0% chance of winning the championship


NB: Copied from a post from Lord Tau who posted it on another forum I visit.

[Stormsearcher]

wow.. Statistically it looks awesome for us. But i dont think its as simple as this.

[siberianlady]

We must split the Bulls to make sure they cannot swap places to be certain- and I don't think it will be that easy.

[Katu]

i wonder how massa could help there

[siberianlady]

i wonder how massa could help there

I honestly don't think he can help much even if he wanted to. Its up to Fernando now to be in front of one or both bulls............hopefully both!

[scuderiafan]

Massa just seems like he's waiting for the year to be over. I just hope he's better next year as yes a top guy and he has it in him.

[siberianlady]

Massa just seems like he's waiting for the year to be over. I just hope he's better next year as yes a top guy and he has it in him.

I think he will. He has just had a horrible year and has been struggling with tyre temperatures- hopefully next year if Pirelli do what they say- going for more aggressive tyres- ie softer compounds then this should suit Felipe better.

[Greig]

I honestly don't think he can help much even if he wanted to. Its up to Fernando now to be in front of one or both bulls............hopefully both!

Off course he can help, winning the race for instance would be a massive help for Alonso

[siberianlady]

Off course he can help, winning the race for instance would be a massive help for Alonso

I would love that as it would boost Felipe's confidence no end in preparation for next season. He really could do with a win!

[FerrariF60]

We must split the Bulls to make sure they cannot swap places to be certain- and I don't think it will be that easy.

or better yet, Alonso has awesome practice sessions to get his car set up JUST right, qualifies on POLE on saturday and WINS the race from POLE......maybe my WISH/DREAM will come true

[AvantiFer]

Off course he can help, winning the race for instance would be a massive help for Alonso

Sadly the odds of that happening are very low. I wish it was true though.

[RED]

Off course he can help, winning the race for instance would be a massive help for Alonso

That would be a great scenario!

[vcs316]

Off course he can help, winning the race for instance would be a massive help for Alonso

That would be an incredible boost for Massa! I really hope he qualifies in the top 4 and plays a key role in the title show-down...

[goferrarigo]

That would be an incredible boost for Massa! I really hope he qualifies in the top 4 and plays a key role in the title show-down...

Yup, i think quali is Massa's week point this year.

[Nova]

The best scenario would be a Ferrari 1 2......Id like that!!

[Suzie]

Massa just seems like he's waiting for the year to be over.

Me too