The importance of grid position.

[CDN-fan]

A few more numbers...

I wanted to see what happened to the drivers that qualified on pole, or from 2nd or 3rd on the grid.

The Winner:
Not surprising, the driver on pole this year finished first in 8 of 13 races so far, or 62% of the time.
Somewhat surprising, there are 7 different drivers who have won from pole.
Of more interest is that starting from 2nd on the grid has resulted in 3 wins, and that the 2 remaining wins are by Fernando, from 8th, and from 11th.

In Second:
The 2nd place finisher however comes from many grid positions: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 5th, 5th, 6th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th, with an average of 5.6

And in Third:
The 3rd place finisher comes from a slightly wider range of grid positions: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 5th, 7th, 7th, 7th, 10th, 10th, 12th and 15th, with an average of 6.8

And from Pole:
Starting from P1 gives you an 85% chance of being somewhere on the podium.
Starting from P2 gives you a 46% chance of being somewhere on the podium.
Starting from P3 gives you only an 8% chance of finishing on the podium.

Strange:
Between P1 and P12, starting P3, P8 or P9 is the worst position for getting to the podium, there is only one from each. Why is P3 so bad?

[Ken]

I blame Fernando for skewing your results and preventing the pole sitter having a 100% chance of winning.

As for the P3 syndrome, have you checked out your stats for previous years ?? to see if there is a pattern.

Or checked , at which tracks the pole sitter is least likely or best likely to get a podium.

Though you may be limited to the years when DRS came to pass, but might be good to see what difference DRS has made from starting positions to finishing finishing positions over the years?

Good luck with crunching 63 years of numbers

[racingbradley]

Some interesting facts could be on the way if CDNfan has time to spare number crunching.

[CDN-fan]

I limited the # of years to keep the results somewhat more relevant to today's cars/drivers/tracks, only 2007 - 2012 (up to Monza).

Grid Position:

How important is starting P1, P2 or P3, to finishing on the podium:
Over the 6 year term,
51.5% of the races were won from pole.
88.3% of the winners came from grid P1, P2, or P3.
62.8% of the podium finishers came from Grid P1, P2, or P3.
3.58 = average starting grid position of all podium finishers (larger # means more open race with starters further down the grid able to finish well).

For 2012, the numbers show better opportunity for those outside the grid top 3:
61.5% won from pole,
84.6% won from grid P1, P2, P3,
43.6% podium finishers from grid P1, P2, P3,
5.15 = average starting grid position of all podium finishers.

2007: 100% of the winners from grid P1-3, 74.5% podium from P1-3, 2.88 = podium finish avg start position.
2008: 83.3% of the winners from grid P1-3, 56.6% podium from P1-3, 4.24 = podium finish avg start position.
2009: 76.5% of the winners from grid P1-3, 60.8% podium from P1-3, 3.98 = podium finish avg start position.
2010: 89.5% of the winners from grid P1-3, 66.7% podium from P1-3, 2.93 = podium finish avg start position.
2011: 94.7% of the winners from grid P1-3, 68.4% podium from P1-3, 3.12 = podium finish avg start position.
2012: 84.6% of the winners from grid P1-3, 43.6% podium from P1-3, 5.15 = podium finish avg start position.

So you can see the lack of overtaking in the exhaust blown diffuser years of 2010 and 2011, and how low the average starting grid position number was for the podium. Much more exciting racing when there are more podiums won by drivers from further down the staring grid, with this year being the best for that compared to the past 6 years.

Taking this another step.
If the starting grid P1, P2, and P3, end up finishing the race 1,2,3 on the podium, then obviously starting position is very important. So I looked at the average starting grid position of each of the 3 podium finishers in all the races since 2007, according to each track. So on a course that's notoriously difficult to pass on like Monaco, you would expect a low average starting grid position for the podium finishers. And on a track where passing is more possible, because of the track's curves/straights, etc, you would expect a higher average starting grid position among the podium finishers. And a more exciting race to watch, if you want to see lead and position changes...

So, in order of overtaking difficulty, sorted by average starting grid position for the podium finishers:
2.33 - Monaco
2.33 - Suzuka, Japan
2.53 - Turkey
2.67 - India (only 1 race so far)
2.72 - Spanish Grand Prix
3.00 - Abu Dhabi
3.11 - Hungaroring
3.27 - Bharain
3.33 - Korea (only 2 races so far)
3.39 - Silverstone
3.67 - Spa
4.00 - Singapore
4.06 - European Grand Prix
4.06 - Monza
4.07 - Brazil
4.20 - German
4.33 - Malasia
4.33 - China
4.39 - Australia
6.00 - Canadian

So for us Ferrari types, we want good qualifying times on the tracks with low average #'s, and good race pace on tracks with higher average #'s.

And yet another comparison that begs to be asked: What effect is Herman Tilke having on all this?
3.27 - average starting grid position for podium finishers for all Tilke tracks,
3.64 - average starting grid position for podium finishers for non-Tilke tracks.

So his tracks are reducing overtaking, and producing less exciting races.

Corrected, see below.

[REDARMYSOJA]

Threads merged.

[wacc]

These are some interesting stats. Thanks

[Ken]

Well done CDN

You picked up the challenge and your results now show the predictability and potential finishes from start to finish.

and you seem to have proved what we all think about Tilk designed tracks, they may look good but as "race" tracks they fail. good work.

[NickEice]

I love statistics!! Good job CDN!!! Keep the analysis coming!!! We should attempt to make an excel database with all the world championships. Then we could have some Pivot Table fun!!!

Sorry MS Excel guru and lover here. Hahaha.

[CDN-fan]

...stats can be fun, for some of us!

But how does this come into play in the next race in Singapore?

[NickEice]

Well, the forecast is for Rain on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. It'd be interesting to also see how weather effects races.

Considering Alonso loves Singapore and loves the rain, could be a great result this weekend! Though I am surprised to see a street circuit down in the bottom half of your analysis. Interesting.

[CDN-fan]

In '08 and '09 there were some wild #'s in the mix, like the winner in '08 coming from 15th on the grid.
Last year was pretty tight though, with the podium coming from grid 1,2, & 3.

At least Alonso has a good wet weather history in the rain this year.
Or, more important: do Hamilton, Vettel, and Raikonnen?

[dongtea]

Very well done DCN-fan.... really appreciate it.

[Tobes]

Very interesting...

In '08 and '09 there were some wild #'s in the mix, like the winner in '08 coming from 15th on the grid.

'08 was manipulated, can't count in the stats...

[CDN-fan]

Ahh, but it does count in the stats!
(that was Briatore, and co., if I recall)

I have to work from the actual final results, not from "what should have happened", like when Grosjean took out Alonso, and Hamilton at Spa, and when Button's and Vettel's cars died at Monza. Those things "shouldn't have happened", but they did, and it all contributes to the average in real life of all possible situations. Changing pace car rules was good, and it also points out that going to even earlier results would probably not have added anything useful, since so many of the rules have changed in recent years.

Do I correct for RedBull's EBD from the past years? Ferrari's wet pace this year? Button's poor performance mid season?

[NickEice]

You can't adjust numbers, you can only give explanations to why the numbers look the way they do.

[CDN-fan]

For Singapore, the starting grid positions of the podium winners in order of 1st, 2nd, 3rd

2011: 1, 3, 2
2010: 1, 2, 5
2009: 1, 6, 5
2008: 15, 8, 2
2007: 2, 4, 3

Even without the 2008 fiasco, there are a fair number of podium finishes coming from outside the grid 1, 2, and 3.

[Tobes]

Ahh, but it does count in the stats!
(that was Briatore, and co., if I recall)

I have to work from the actual final results, not from "what should have happened", like when Grosjean took out Alonso, and Hamilton at Spa, and when Button's and Vettel's cars died at Monza. Those things "shouldn't have happened", but they did, and it all contributes to the average in real life of all possible situations.

It was nothing like either those situations, nor is it a "what should have happened" scenario, Piquet Jr actually crashed his car deliberately and completely manipulated the race result...

Either way makes for some interesting reading...

[CDN-fan]

Yeah, stats can be useful when they help to show something new.

This is where including variance and outliers in the discussion would have been useful, but I suspect this level is already complicated enough.

...I'm also cynical enough to assume all teams are looking for any exploitable loophole they can find...

[F1NAC]

For Singapore, the starting grid positions of the podium winners in order of 1st, 2nd, 3rd

2011: 1, 3, 2
2010: 1, 2, 5
2009: 1, 6, 5
2008: 15, 8, 2
2007: 2, 4, 3

Even without the 2008 fiasco, there are a fair number of podium finishes coming from outside the grid 1, 2, and 3.

yes you definitely need pole for this race :D . 2007 wasn't race in singapore ;)

[CDN-fan]

...That's what I get for building spreadsheets at 2am!
Thanks, will correct #s

[CDN-fan]

Revised, correcting for including 2007 China in the Singapore results. Also excluding Piquet Jr's contribution.
This also makes Tilke's tracks look worse...

(For reference purposes: if the starting grid p1, p2, and p3 all finish on the podium, then the average starting position for the podium = 2.00, making that the lowest # possible, and the toughest tracks for over-taking)

2.33 - Monaco
2.33 - Suzuka, Japan
2.53 - Turkey
2.67 - India (only 1 race so far)
2.72 - Spanish Grand Prix
2.89 - Singapore (excluding crash-gate)
3.00 - Abu Dhabi
3.11 - Hungaroring
3.27 - Bharain
3.33 - Korea (only 2 races so far)
3.39 - Silverstone
3.67 - Spa
4.06 - European Grand Prix
4.06 - Monza
4.07 - Brazil
4.11 - China (corrected)
4.20 - German
4.33 - Malaysia
4.39 - Australia
6.00 - Canadian

Tilke:
3.13 - average starting grid position for podium finishers for all Tilke tracks,
3.64 - average starting grid position for podium finishers for non-Tilke tracks.