FERRARI IN LAST-CHANCE SALOON
Fernando Alonso has to make up 13 points on Vettel to win the title in Brazil this weekend, which means that even if Vettel does not finish, Alonso still has to come third.
With the performance we saw from McLaren in the US, and the Lotus cars in Abu Dhabi, that might not be easy even without Vettel in the race, because Ferrari haven't improved their car enough.
In Austin, McLaren and Red Bull both had new front wings, which worked. Ferrari had a new diffuser for Alonso and he qualified behind Massa on merit for the first time all season, which suggests that the diffuser did not work.
Ferrari are getting left behind. The car, I believe, is too sensitive aerodynamically around the diffuser and rear wing.
It's a problem that is most obvious in qualifying because it creates instability at the rear on corner turn-in that is worsened by the use of the DRS overtaking aid, as I explained in my last column.
Standings heading into the last race in Brazil
1. Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, 273 points
2. Fernando Alonso, Ferrari, 260
3. Kimi Raikkonen, Lotus, 206
4. Lewis Hamilton, McLaren, 190
5. Mark Webber, Red Bull, 167
6. Jenson Button, McLaren, 163
7. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 107
8. Romain Grosjean, Lotus, 96
9. Nico Rosberg, Mercedes, 93
10. Sergio Perez, Sauber, 66
Ferrari are not qualifying close enough to the front and you can't usually win races playing catch-up - they have to be gifted to you. In Brazil, Ferrari have to get their car to qualify at the front.
They are going to have to scratch their heads but there are things they can do. You don't always have time to look at it in the wind tunnel; you have to look at it logically.
My focus would be on the diffuser. They could adjust the way it behaves and small alterations will change it dramatically. I've done that myself in the past using body filler, believe it or not.
The chances of making the progress they need are virtually nil but they are in a position where they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by trying.
If Ferrari can do something to make that area work a little better, they could get a big step forward out of it. If you give the driver confidence, you can gain the amounts of lap time and I don't think they are giving the drivers confidence in qualifying.
RED BULL GIVE FERRARI HOPE
Having said all that, Brazil is a unique track. It is at reasonably high altitude so the engines lose about 65bhp.
The Kers power-boost system is therefore commensurately more important, and Red Bull's is not only less powerful than Ferrari's but also less reliable.
Red Bull also have a concern over the reliability of their alternators following the failure on Mark Webber's car.
Red Bull were using an alternator in the same specification as the one that failed on Vettel's car in Valencia in June.
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They were running one spec of alternator up to Valencia, but when that failed Renault lengthened the armature to get more output at low revs because they thought that was causing the problem, that it wasn't charging enough.
But then that new spec failed on Vettel's car in Monza because of the lengthened armature so Red Bull went back to the pre-Valencia spec but built with tender loving care.
But those bits were running out so Renault designed a new one, trying to improve the areas where it had failed.
The other Renault-engined teams were running the new alternator in Austin. Everyone was supposed to run it but Red Bull decided to stick with the old one because it had been reliable.
But in Austin the new-spec alternator ran without problems on the Lotus, Williams and Caterham, and Webber's pre-Valencia spec one failed.
So now Red Bull have a big decision to make as to which one to use in Brazil.
That's the thing in F1; there are so many things that can go wrong. Thirteen points is a lot, but the title is not sewn up by any means.
Gary Anderson, BBC F1's technical analyst, is the former technical director of the Jordan, Stewart and Jaguar teams. He was talking to BBC Sport's Andrew Benson
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